1. The 2019 International Electronic Circuits (Shanghai) Exhibition—CPCA 2019 Spring International PCB Technology/Information Forum opened grandly on the afternoon of March 19 at the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Shanghai). I hope PCB industry colleagues will unite to grasp the industry’s development trends and forge the next golden decade of growth!
2. External cyclical changes have triggered structural shifts within the industry. By seizing opportunities and refining practices, companies can pursue sustainable development.
3. Reflecting on ten years ago, in 2008, the industry faced significant challenges due to the global financial crisis. Particularly in the latter half of the year, many companies saw a sharp decline in orders, leading to layoffs and widespread panic. Over the past decade, we have navigated through these ups and downs. Similarly, the macro environment in 2018 presented its own set of challenges and uncertainties. Hence, I wish to revisit 2008, review the industry’s journey over the past decade, and consider future directions.
1. At that time, China was experiencing a financial crisis, with GDP at 31 trillion yuan. By last year, GDP had exceeded 90 trillion yuan. In 2008, our communication with the outside world was primarily through two channels: feature phones for telephony and PCs for the Internet. The 2G network was the most commonly used, while 3G was the most talked about. Over the past 18 years, mobile smart terminals have revolutionized communication. Now, 4G is the most widely used, and 5G is the major hot spot. The entire world has undergone dramatic changes in the past decade.
2. Looking back, let’s first examine the performance of the industry: PCB global output increased from over US$40 billion in 2008 to more than US$60 billion in 2018. The compound annual growth rate was 2.6%, which, while modest, reflects significant industry shifts. From a trend perspective, the PCB industry has maintained consistent growth from 1988 to the present. This is commendable for the electronic information industry. The growth process has not been entirely smooth but has exhibited characteristics of long-term growth with short-term fluctuations. Additionally, the growth cycle has shortened from 10 years to 8, 6, and then 5 years, indicating industry maturation. Simultaneously, the industry is influenced by external factors, leading to some changes.
3. The global output of PCB increased from over US$40 billion in 2008 to more than US$60 billion in 2018.
4. The development of the PCB industry has been driven by the electronic information industry. While the 3C market remains a major force, significant structural changes have occurred: the demand for PCBs has decreased for PCs but increased substantially for mobile phones. These fluctuations have led to profound industry changes.
5. Industry concentration has further improved, with the proportion of the top 10 global companies reaching 33%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points since 2008. It is evident that leading enterprises have made the most significant contributions to industrial development.
6. Comparing the top 10 companies in 2008 and 2018 reveals substantial changes. Four companies have entered the global top ten, with Zhending experiencing rapid growth. The scale threshold for the tenth place has increased by US$200 million over ten years, while the first-place threshold has risen by US$1.9 billion, widening the gap. The difference between the number 1 and number 10 positions has expanded from 2 times to 4 times. Additionally, ten new companies have entered the top 40, with five being Chinese-funded.
7. Analyzing the top 10 companies in 2008 and 2018 reveals significant changes.
8. Two main reasons account for these changes: first, external players have effectively grasped the pulse of industrial development, and second, internal companies have aggressively expanded capacity and rapidly improved operations and technical capabilities. For example, Pengding has focused on the mobile phone market and become the world’s largest PCB manufacturer by specializing in flexible circuits; Dongshan Precision has enhanced its capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, covering both flexible and rigid boards; AT&S has developed unique strengths in packaging substrates and HDI; Shennan has established competitiveness in communications and packaging substrates; Jingwang has achieved advantages in high efficiency and low cost. In other words, rapid development requires industrial stimulation and seizing opportunities.
2. External cyclical changes have triggered structural shifts within the industry. By seizing opportunities and refining practices, companies can pursue sustainable development.
3. Reflecting on ten years ago, in 2008, the industry faced significant challenges due to the global financial crisis. Particularly in the latter half of the year, many companies saw a sharp decline in orders, leading to layoffs and widespread panic. Over the past decade, we have navigated through these ups and downs. Similarly, the macro environment in 2018 presented its own set of challenges and uncertainties. Hence, I wish to revisit 2008, review the industry’s journey over the past decade, and consider future directions.
1. At that time, China was experiencing a financial crisis, with GDP at 31 trillion yuan. By last year, GDP had exceeded 90 trillion yuan. In 2008, our communication with the outside world was primarily through two channels: feature phones for telephony and PCs for the Internet. The 2G network was the most commonly used, while 3G was the most talked about. Over the past 18 years, mobile smart terminals have revolutionized communication. Now, 4G is the most widely used, and 5G is the major hot spot. The entire world has undergone dramatic changes in the past decade.
2. Looking back, let’s first examine the performance of the industry: PCB global output increased from over US$40 billion in 2008 to more than US$60 billion in 2018. The compound annual growth rate was 2.6%, which, while modest, reflects significant industry shifts. From a trend perspective, the PCB industry has maintained consistent growth from 1988 to the present. This is commendable for the electronic information industry. The growth process has not been entirely smooth but has exhibited characteristics of long-term growth with short-term fluctuations. Additionally, the growth cycle has shortened from 10 years to 8, 6, and then 5 years, indicating industry maturation. Simultaneously, the industry is influenced by external factors, leading to some changes.
3. The global output of PCB increased from over US$40 billion in 2008 to more than US$60 billion in 2018.
4. The development of the PCB industry has been driven by the electronic information industry. While the 3C market remains a major force, significant structural changes have occurred: the demand for PCBs has decreased for PCs but increased substantially for mobile phones. These fluctuations have led to profound industry changes.
5. Industry concentration has further improved, with the proportion of the top 10 global companies reaching 33%, an increase of 5.5 percentage points since 2008. It is evident that leading enterprises have made the most significant contributions to industrial development.
6. Comparing the top 10 companies in 2008 and 2018 reveals substantial changes. Four companies have entered the global top ten, with Zhending experiencing rapid growth. The scale threshold for the tenth place has increased by US$200 million over ten years, while the first-place threshold has risen by US$1.9 billion, widening the gap. The difference between the number 1 and number 10 positions has expanded from 2 times to 4 times. Additionally, ten new companies have entered the top 40, with five being Chinese-funded.
7. Analyzing the top 10 companies in 2008 and 2018 reveals significant changes.
8. Two main reasons account for these changes: first, external players have effectively grasped the pulse of industrial development, and second, internal companies have aggressively expanded capacity and rapidly improved operations and technical capabilities. For example, Pengding has focused on the mobile phone market and become the world’s largest PCB manufacturer by specializing in flexible circuits; Dongshan Precision has enhanced its capabilities through mergers and acquisitions, covering both flexible and rigid boards; AT&S has developed unique strengths in packaging substrates and HDI; Shennan has established competitiveness in communications and packaging substrates; Jingwang has achieved advantages in high efficiency and low cost. In other words, rapid development requires industrial stimulation and seizing opportunities.
